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Valiant Enya

4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 1 · OR 88

Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Mountaineer 18/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 89 · 5f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/11/2025 · OR 89 par18/11C5OR 89C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 26/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 76 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 76 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 17/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 73 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 73 par17/06C5OR 73C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 78 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 79 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 79 par20/07C8OR 79C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 81 · 1m70y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 25/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 81 · 1m70y 125 · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 81 par25/08C8OR 81C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 85 · 1m70y 123 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 85 parC5 @ Mountaineer 29/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 89 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/09/2026 · OR 89 par29/09C5OR 89projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-29Mountaineer?1st0th+1
2026-09-09Presque Isle Downs?2nd4th−2
2026-08-25Presque Isle Downs?5th7th−2
2026-08-03Presque Isle Downs?1st0th+1
2026-07-20Presque Isle Downs?3rd5th−2
2026-07-03Presque Isle Downs?5th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/113/0725/0829/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +5.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/11/20254th13/266%57%-0.09
26/05/20266th25/10%17%+0.17
17/06/20263rd13/266%60%-0.06
03/07/20265th8/158%33%-0.25
20/07/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23
03/08/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
25/08/20265th15/261%50%-0.11
09/09/20262nd20/10%86%+0.86
29/09/20261st11/486%100%+0.14