IvyArcIvyArc
4

Louisianimal

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 94

Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

76%

Place Prob

50%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 86 par3/09C8OR 86C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 10/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 87 · 5f110y 123 · below its mark10/09/2025 · OR 87 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 30/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 89 · 1m70y 123 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 89 par30/09C8OR 89C7 @ Presque Isle Downs 21/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 88 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 88 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 18/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 90 · 5f110y 123 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 90 par18/05C8OR 90C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 88 · 1m70y 123 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 88 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 07/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 88 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 88 par7/07C8OR 88C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 90 · 1m70y 123 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 90 parC7 @ Presque Isle Downs 18/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 93 · 1m2f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 93 par18/09C7OR 93projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Presque Isle Downs?3rd2nd+1
2026-08-17Presque Isle Downs?1st1st0
2026-07-07Presque Isle Downs?8th8th0
2026-06-22Presque Isle Downs?4th4th0
2026-05-18Presque Isle Downs?4th4th0
2025-10-21Presque Isle Downs?5th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0921/107/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength62%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20251st1/499%100%+0.01
10/09/20253rd5/287%60%-0.27
30/09/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
21/10/20255th7/282%33%-0.48
18/05/20264th10/382%50%-0.32
22/06/20264th13/891%25%-0.66
07/07/20268th10/382%0%-0.82
17/08/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
18/09/20263rd9/153%75%+0.22