5
Third Degree
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 76
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 24/04/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 22/01/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 14/02/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 08/03/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |