Via Della Spiga
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 6 · OR 82
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 73% | -0.14 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 05/08/2026 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 20% | -0.71 |
| 23/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |