4
Hector
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 89
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 37/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 29/09/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 28/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |