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Thank You Amy

3yo Filly · 8-5 · Draw 1 · OR 93

Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength14%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 19/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 83 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 83 par19/09C5OR 83C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 09/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 83 · 6f 120 · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 83 parC6 @ Gulfstream 03/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 83 · 5f Fas 123 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 83 par3/04C6OR 83C1 @ Churchill Downs 30/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 88 · 5f110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 88 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 87 · 6f 118 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 87 par27/05C6OR 87C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 84 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 84 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 08/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 86 · 6f 118 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 86 par8/07C6OR 86C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 84 · 6f 118 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 84 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 29/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 84 · 6f 119 · below its mark29/09/2026 · OR 84 par29/09C6OR 84projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-29Presque Isle Downs?6th6th0
2026-08-17Presque Isle Downs?1st1st0
2026-07-08Presque Isle Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-06-22Presque Isle Downs?5th4th+1
2026-05-27Presque Isle Downs?1st1st0
2026-04-30Churchill Downs?9th3rd+5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0930/048/0729/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 5-6 · tight 83/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20255th10/147%56%+0.08
09/10/20252nd10/1195%75%-0.20
03/04/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
30/04/20269th40/10%0%0.00
27/05/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
22/06/20265th9/276%20%-0.56
08/07/20263rd5/287%33%-0.54
17/08/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
29/09/20266th5/287%0%-0.87