The Boy's Warrior
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 98
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-30 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-03 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-05-08 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2024 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 29/03/2025 | 1st | 1/10 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 23/04/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 08/05/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |