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5

Thorn Of Hearts

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 92

Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 01/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 85 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 85 par1/09C5OR 85C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 15/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 85 · 6f110y 123 · beat its mark15/09/2025 · OR 85 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 29/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 87 · 6f 123 · below its mark29/09/2025 · OR 87 par29/09C6OR 87C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 15/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 91 · 6f 123 · below its mark15/10/2025 · OR 91 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 17/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 95 · 6f 123 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 95 par17/06C6OR 95C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 29/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 92 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 92 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 05/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 90 · 6f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 90 par5/08C5OR 90C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 01/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 89 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/09/2026 · OR 89 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 18/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 91 · 6f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 91 par18/09C5OR 91projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Presque Isle Downs?5th4th+1
2026-09-01Presque Isle Downs?3rd2nd+1
2026-08-05Presque Isle Downs?2nd1st+1
2026-06-29Presque Isle Downs?6th5th+1
2026-06-17Presque Isle Downs?5th5th0
2025-10-15Presque Isle Downs?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0915/105/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength27%

Delivery trend -11.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/09/20252nd16/116%80%+0.64
15/09/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
29/09/20253rd10/147%60%+0.13
15/10/20252nd4/179%80%+0.01
17/06/20265th3/184%0%-0.84
29/06/20266th16/116%17%+0.01
05/08/20262nd3/184%86%+0.02
01/09/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36
18/09/20265th9/488%50%-0.38