7
Body By Carvel
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 7 · OR 94
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 04/02/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/09/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |