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5

Nicole's Will

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 84

Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲3
Strength5%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Presque Isle Downs 15/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 69 · 1m 122 · below its mark15/10/2025 · OR 69 par15/10C9OR 69C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 05/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 70 · 1m Gd 122 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 70 parC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 11/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 65 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark11/03/2026 · OR 65 par11/03C9OR 65C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 15/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 67 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark15/04/2026 · OR 67 parC9 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 66 · 6f 125 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 66 par3/07C9OR 66C9 @ Presque Isle Downs 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 66 · 6f 125 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 66 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 65 · 6f 125 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 65 par28/07C8OR 65C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 25/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 70 · 6f 123 · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 70 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 15/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 81 · 6f 123 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 81 par15/09C8OR 81projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Presque Isle Downs?1st4th−3
2026-08-25Presque Isle Downs?2nd5th−3
2026-07-28Presque Isle Downs?1st4th−3
2026-07-15Presque Isle Downs?1st5th−4
2026-07-03Presque Isle Downs?2nd6th−4
2026-04-15Tampa Bay Downs?8th12th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1015/0428/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength82%

Delivery trend +6.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/10/20252nd1/195%80%-0.15
05/02/20265th7/282%20%-0.62
11/03/20267th12/137%33%-0.04
15/04/20268th6/168%22%-0.46
03/07/20262nd7/491%80%-0.11
15/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
28/07/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
25/08/20262nd15/890%75%-0.15
15/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24