2
Paschal Moon
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 88
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-09-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 45/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 05/11/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 17/11/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 21/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |