4
Turf Cat
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 86
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 45% | -0.37 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 29/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |