3
Vasa
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 99
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
48%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-11-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-09-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-08-09 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-07-18 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 44/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 18/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 18/09/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |