Name Dropper
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 8 · OR 74
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 26/08/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 11/05/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 23/06/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 23/09/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |