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Arms Park

5yo Gelding · 11-4

Sedgefield · Mowden Park RFC Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 178y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

96%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Half-brother to 4 winners, including useful hurdler Out of The Loop. Put his experience to good use when making all in Taunton bumper in March and rates an interesting hurdling debutant.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Plumpton 21/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 2m1f169y Goo 15421/0955 @ Taunton 27/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m104y Goo 15627/1155 @ Taunton 24/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 2m104y Gd 15624/035projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-24Taunton51st2nd−1
2025-11-27Taunton53rd4th−1
2025-09-21Plumpton52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0927/1124/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 73/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength99%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/09/20252nd10/147%75%+0.28
27/11/20253rd10/147%80%+0.33
24/03/20261st4/179%100%+0.21