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2

Dunstall Star

5yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 103

Sedgefield · Mowden Park RFC Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 178y

#2

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

From a family the yard knows well and confirmed debut promise when getting up late in slowly-run Exeter bumper. Hurdles debut didn't go to plan but much more like it when second to Skelton hotpot at Warwick. Bit disappointing next time but worth another chance back from a break/breathing operation.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wincanton 15/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m7f50y Hvy 16215/0155 @ Exeter 17/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 2m161y Gd 15717/0454 @ Warwick 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 2m Goo 1583/0644 @ Worcester 01/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 2m Gd 1581/074projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-01Worcester45th5th0
2026-06-03Warwick42nd2nd0
2026-05-09Warwick40
2026-04-17Exeter51st2nd−1
2026-01-15Wincanton56th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0117/043/061/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 27/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength45%

Delivery trend -15.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/01/20266th22/10%44%+0.44
17/04/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
03/06/20262nd12/137%83%+0.46
01/07/20265th7/282%60%-0.22