IvyArcIvyArc
5

Imperial Trooper

4yo Gelding · 11-3

Sedgefield · Mowden Park RFC Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 178y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner on the Flat though out of sorts in that sphere of late, including last time. Made little impression on hurdles bow but showed a lot more when third in novice at Worcester.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 20/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 72 · 1m2f42y Std 134 · beat its mark20/01/2026 · OR 72 par20/015OR 725 @ Kempton 04/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 72 · 1m2f219y Sta 134 · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Newcastle 05/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 71 · 1m2f42y Std 131 · beat its mark05/03/2026 · OR 71 par5/035OR 715 @ Redcar 20/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 71 · 1m2f1y Goo 131 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 71 · 1m4f63y Goo 129 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 71 par8/054OR 715 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 69 · 1m2f42y Goo 135 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ Worcester 17/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 2m Gd 15317/0644 @ Worcester 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 2m Goo 1525 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 67 · 1m4f63y Goo 142 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 67 par25/075OR 67projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Chester58th9th−1
2026-07-16Worcester43rd3rd0
2026-06-17Worcester45th5th0
2026-05-22Haydock56th7th−1
2026-05-08Chester415th15th0
2026-04-20Redcar53rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0120/0417/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/01/20262nd16/116%90%+0.74
04/02/20266th14/126%58%+0.32
05/03/20263rd9/276%78%+0.01
20/04/20263rd7/282%75%-0.07
08/05/202615th18/15%0%-0.05
22/05/20266th18/581%38%-0.44
17/06/20265th20/10%43%+0.43
16/07/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
25/07/20268th25/10%22%+0.22