7
Military Cross
4yo Gelding · 11-3
Sedgefield · Mowden Park RFC Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 178y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Cartmel | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | York | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-27 | Redcar | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 74/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength72%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |
| 03/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 30/100 | 98% | 88% | -0.11 |
| 27/10/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 89% | -0.07 |
| 15/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 82% | -0.10 |
| 30/01/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 13/05/2026 | 14th | 28/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |