8
Palavar
4yo Gelding · 11-3
Sedgefield · Mowden Park RFC Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 178y
#9
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.5 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Hexham | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-24 | Perth | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Dundalk | BHA64 | 14th | 17th | −2 |
| 2025-12-12 | Dundalk | BHA67 | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2025-11-26 | Dundalk | BHA68 | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2025-04-08 | Navan | ? | 6th | 11th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 8-9 · tight 83/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 58% | +0.32 |
| 28/02/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |
| 08/04/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 54% | +0.17 |
| 12/12/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.14 |
| 19/12/2025 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |