4
Henry Box Brown
9yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 84
Sedgefield · Fairlight Studios At Sedgefield Racecourse Handicap Chase · 3m 2f 59y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Worcester | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Bangor-on-Dee | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Southwell | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-21 | Ffos Las | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Ffos Las | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 4.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 05/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 14/12/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 16/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 21/04/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 38% | -0.18 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |