Swingforthefence
5yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 85
Sedgefield · Fairlight Studios At Sedgefield Racecourse Handicap Chase · 3m 2f 59y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Worcester | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Worcester | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-01 | Sedgefield | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Sedgefield | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Ludlow | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-02-03 | Carlisle | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 4. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/2025 | 3rd | 16/5 | 83% | 50% | -0.33 |
| 15/01/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 03/02/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 18/02/2026 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 10/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 01/04/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |