3
Neigh Botha
9yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 109
Sedgefield · Jodie Standings Point-To-Point Recruits Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 77y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Worcester | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-04 | Warwick | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Catterick | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Bangor-on-Dee | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-02 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-06-25 | Worcester | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 4.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2024 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/03/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 13/04/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 03/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 25/06/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 27/10/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 21/11/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 04/05/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |