Bathgate
6yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 110
Sedgefield · Roxyfet Sports Lounge For Private Hire Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f 34y
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Perth | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Kelso | 2 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-02-24 | Catterick | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-09 | Catterick | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Catterick | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Musselburgh | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 04/12/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 05/12/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 22/12/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 21/01/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 09/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/02/2026 | 6th | 16/5 | 83% | 29% | -0.55 |
| 21/03/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 23/09/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |