American Empire
6yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 88
Sedgefield · Winning Connections Conference Hire Handicap Hurdle · 2m 178y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Worcester | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Sedgefield | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Bangor-on-Dee | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Hereford | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Hereford | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 85% | +0.29 |
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 29/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 16/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 10/09/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 13% | -0.53 |