IvyArcIvyArc
2

Character Testing

5yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 93

Sedgefield · Winning Connections Conference Hire Handicap Hurdle · 2m 178y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Went with bags of enthusiasm in a refitted visor when chasing home Littletown Lad over C&D in August. Shaped as though still in form despite finishing further behind that rival back here 3 weeks ago and now has the services of a good-value conditional.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Market Rasen 08/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 94 · 2m125y Gd 165 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 94 par8/055OR 945 @ Cartmel 27/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 92 · 2m1f46y Gd 160 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 92 par5 @ Hexham 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 95 · 2m48y Gd 158 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 95 par13/065OR 955 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 60 · 1m4f98y Sta 127 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Uttoxeter 15/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 94 · 1m7f168y Gd 166 · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 94 par15/075OR 946 @ Beverley 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 55 · 1m4f23y Goo 138 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 55 · 1m6f115y GF 138 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 55 par15/086OR 555 @ Sedgefield 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 92 · 2m178y Goo 164 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 92 par5 @ Sedgefield 14/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 94 · 2m178y Goo 166 · below its mark14/09/2026 · OR 94 par14/095OR 94projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Sedgefield54th4th0
2026-08-28Sedgefield52nd2nd0
2026-08-15Doncaster67th8th−1
2026-07-28Beverley62nd3rd−1
2026-07-15Uttoxeter54th4th0
2026-06-27Newcastle59th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0527/0615/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength64%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/05/20265th13/266%50%-0.16
27/05/20262nd10/147%92%+0.44
13/06/20264th4/179%67%-0.12
27/06/20269th50/10%27%+0.27
15/07/20264th4/179%73%-0.06
28/07/20262nd15/261%83%+0.23
15/08/20267th7/163%0%-0.63
28/08/20262nd9/276%89%+0.13
14/09/20264th10/382%67%-0.16