3
Littletown Lad
6yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 91
Sedgefield · Winning Connections Conference Hire Handicap Hurdle · 2m 178y
#1
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Sedgefield | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Sedgefield | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-09 | Southwell | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength91%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 02/12/2025 | 10th | 150/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 27/12/2025 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 31/03/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 58% | -0.21 |
| 11/05/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 42% | -0.27 |
| 09/06/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |