5
Natural Ability
8yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 86
Sedgefield · Winning Connections Conference Hire Handicap Hurdle · 2m 178y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 9.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Hexham | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-01 | Sedgefield | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Catterick | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Sedgefield | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Sedgefield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-02-05 | Sedgefield | 4 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2023 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 06/05/2024 | 15th | 50/1 | 0% | 26% | +0.26 |
| 23/09/2024 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 14/11/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 17/12/2024 | 5th | 85/40 | 89% | 43% | -0.46 |
| 24/11/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/02/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |