2
Ghost Bike
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 2 · OR 87
Thistledown · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 06/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 44% | -0.27 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 06/09/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |