Gut Instinct
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 78
Thistledown · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-10-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 06/05/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 27/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 15/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 03/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |