Patriarchal
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 7 · OR 94
Thistledown · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
60%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 30/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |