3
Puff'smagicdragon
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 3 · OR 92
Thistledown · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 16/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |