1
Boaz
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · Draw 1 · OR 59
Thistledown · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 62/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 24/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 21/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |