6
Dream Boy
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · Draw 6 · OR 67
Thistledown · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
58%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-12-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 50/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 08/12/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 18/12/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |