4
El Canelo One
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · Draw 4 · OR 54
Thistledown · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 24/02/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 18/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 21/09/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |