2
Lucky Juulz
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 2 · OR 46
Thistledown · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 81/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 23/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 12/01/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 09/02/2026 | 1st | 66/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 03/03/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |