5
My Paisan
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · Draw 5 · OR 57
Thistledown · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength27%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 20/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 09/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 24/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 15/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |