3
Sammy's Halo
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · Draw 3 · OR 56
Thistledown · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
35%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 05/11/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 08/12/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 18/12/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 29% | -0.63 |
| 13/08/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |