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6

Composition

3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 6 · OR 51

Thistledown · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

34%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 06/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 50 · 5f110y Fas 118 · beat its mark06/08/2025 · OR 50 par6/08C6OR 50C6 @ Thistledown 22/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 40 · 5f110y 118 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 40 par22/09C6OR 40C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 10/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 40 · 1m39y 119 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 40 par10/04C6OR 40C6 @ Thistledown 07/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 53 · 1m 119 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 53 par7/05C6OR 53C6 @ Thistledown 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 56 · 6f 119 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 56 par20/06C6OR 56C6 @ Thistledown 17/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 53 · 1m Fas 119 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 53 par17/08C6OR 53C6 @ Thistledown 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 54 · 1m 119 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 54 par31/08C6OR 54projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-08-17Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-06-20Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-05-07Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-04-10Tampa Bay Downs?3rd3rd0
2025-09-22Thistledown?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/087/0531/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 36/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength54%

Delivery trend -4.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/08/20257th7/163%14%-0.49
22/09/20254th16/116%73%+0.57
10/04/20263rd16/116%50%+0.34
07/05/20262nd11/1094%50%-0.44
20/06/20265th2/189%50%-0.39
17/08/20265th6/168%33%-0.35
31/08/20262nd11/1094%88%-0.07