IvyArcIvyArc
4

Mo Thunder

3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 26

Thistledown · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 25/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 6f 11825/08C6C6 @ Thistledown 22/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 43 · 5f110y 118 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 43 parC6 @ Thistledown 15/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 29 · 5f110y Fas 118 · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 29 par15/10C6OR 29C6 @ Mahoning Valley 04/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 25 · 6f 122 · beat its mark04/11/2025 · OR 25 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 22/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 95 · 6f Gd 122 · below its mark22/12/2025 · OR 95 par22/12C6OR 95C6 @ Mahoning Valley 06/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 28 · 6f Slo 122 · beat its mark06/01/2026 · OR 28 parC6 @ Thistledown 06/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 25 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 25 par6/07C6OR 25C6 @ Thistledown 27/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 27 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 27 parC6 @ Thistledown 31/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 78 · 1m 119 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 78 par31/08C6OR 78projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-07-27Thistledown?6th6th0
2026-07-06Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-01-06Mahoning Valley?6th6th0
2025-12-22Mahoning Valley?3rd3rd0
2025-11-04Mahoning Valley?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/084/116/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 37/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength36%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/08/20255th11/271%43%-0.28
22/09/202512th10/147%0%-0.47
15/10/20258th25/10%22%+0.22
04/11/20254th33/10%25%+0.25
22/12/20253rd20/10%60%+0.60
06/01/20266th15/261%17%-0.44
06/07/20265th4/179%20%-0.59
27/07/20266th16/116%17%+0.01
31/08/20264th16/116%63%+0.47