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3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 5 · OR 44

Thistledown · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 24/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 60 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark24/12/2025 · OR 60 par24/12C9OR 60C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 08/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 53 · 7f 119 · below its mark08/02/2026 · OR 53 par8/02C9OR 53C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 26/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 41 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 41 par26/04C9OR 41C6 @ Thistledown 11/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 41 · 6f 119 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 41 par11/05C6OR 41C6 @ Thistledown 27/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 54 · 5f110y Fas 114 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 54 par27/07C6OR 54C5 @ Thistledown 07/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 52 · 6f Fas 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 52 par7/09C5OR 52C6 @ Thistledown 22/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 48 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 48 par22/09C6OR 48projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-09-07Thistledown?5th4th+1
2026-07-27Thistledown?6th6th0
2026-05-11Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-04-26Tampa Bay Downs?7th10th−3
2026-02-08Tampa Bay Downs?7th10th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1211/0522/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 51/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength64%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/12/20259th20/10%11%+0.11
08/02/20267th40/10%0%0.00
26/04/20267th66/10%14%+0.14
11/05/20263rd20/10%67%+0.67
27/07/20266th20/10%55%+0.55
07/09/20265th12/137%20%-0.17
22/09/20264th13/266%50%-0.16