Sweet Kylie

3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 2 · OR 70

Thistledown · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m

Rank

Odds

6/5

Win Prob

77%

Place Prob

62%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength64%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.4

Today:

Class gap: +0.6

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-27	Thistledown	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-24	Thistledown	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2025-12-10	Mahoning Valley	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2025-11-19	Mahoning Valley	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2025-10-25	Mahoning Valley	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2025-10-02	Thistledown	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 63/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength84%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/09/2025	2nd	11/2	71%	67%	-0.04
22/09/2025	8th	6/1	68%	36%	-0.32
02/10/2025	2nd	12/1	37%	75%	+0.38
25/10/2025	3rd	25/1	0%	71%	+0.71
19/11/2025	2nd	11/8	93%	80%	-0.13
10/12/2025	3rd	7/2	82%	33%	-0.48
24/06/2026	2nd	13/2	66%	67%	+0.01
27/07/2026	2nd	15/8	90%	83%	-0.07