Fair And Square
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 95
Thistledown · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/5
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-08-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 26/10/2024 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 91% | +0.05 |
| 11/06/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 02/07/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 14/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |