Private Moment
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 87
Thistledown · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-09-17 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 14/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 14/08/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 03/09/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 17/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |