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6

Moon Dreams

4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 6 · OR 21

Thistledown · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼3
Strength98%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Thistledown 22/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 6f Slo 11922/05C9C6 @ Thistledown 21/06/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 24 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2025 · OR 24 parC9 @ Thistledown 15/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 20 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark15/07/2025 · OR 20 par15/07C9OR 20C6 @ Mahoning Valley 01/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 13 · 6f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/02/2026 · OR 13 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 25/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 87 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/02/2026 · OR 87 par25/02C6OR 87C6 @ Mahoning Valley 12/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 19 · 1m Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 19 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 30/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 24 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 24 par30/03C6OR 24C6 @ Thistledown 20/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 24 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 24 parC6 @ Thistledown 07/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 24 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 24 par7/05C6OR 24projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-07Thistledown?8th5th+3
2026-04-20Thistledown?6th3rd+3
2026-03-30Mahoning Valley?2nd-1th+3
2026-03-12Mahoning Valley?3rd0th+3
2026-02-25Mahoning Valley?3rd0th+3
2026-02-01Mahoning Valley?2nd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/051/0230/037/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength56%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/05/20253rd6/168%50%-0.18
21/06/202510th66/10%0%0.00
15/07/20256th20/10%0%0.00
01/02/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57
25/02/20263rd7/282%67%-0.15
12/03/20263rd11/271%78%+0.07
30/03/20262nd11/486%86%+0.00
20/04/20266th6/168%0%-0.68
07/05/20268th14/126%0%-0.26