5
Pyramid Scheme
3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 5 · OR 33
Thistledown · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength73%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-03-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 01/04/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 10% | -0.43 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 17/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |
| 22/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |