7
Lucky Victor
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 7 · OR 69
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2024-11-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2024-11-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-10-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2024 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 16/09/2024 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 08/10/2024 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 23/10/2024 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 06/11/2024 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 25/11/2024 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 28/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |