IvyArcIvyArc
2

Mor Stormy

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 71

Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

15%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Thistledown 28/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 69 · 1m 115 · below its mark28/08/2025 · OR 69 par28/08C5OR 69C5 @ Thistledown 15/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 65 · 6f 115 · beat its mark15/09/2025 · OR 65 parC5 @ Thistledown 06/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 68 · 6f 115 · below its mark06/10/2025 · OR 68 par6/10C5OR 68C5 @ Mahoning Valley 27/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 62 · 6f 121 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 62 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 13/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 65 · 1m 122 · beat its mark13/11/2025 · OR 65 par13/11C5OR 65C5 @ Mahoning Valley 02/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 64 · 6f Gd 124 · beat its mark02/01/2026 · OR 64 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 22/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 67 · 6f Slo 126 · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 67 par22/01C5OR 67C5 @ Thistledown 05/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 73 parC5 @ Thistledown 10/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 75 · 6f 119 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 75 par10/09C5OR 75projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-08-05Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-01-22Mahoning Valley?7th7th0
2026-01-02Mahoning Valley?1st1st0
2025-11-13Mahoning Valley?2nd2nd0
2025-10-27Mahoning Valley?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0827/1022/0110/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength85%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/08/20256th9/276%0%-0.76
15/09/20252nd9/276%80%+0.04
06/10/20258th13/266%0%-0.66
27/10/20253rd11/271%67%-0.04
13/11/20252nd9/276%80%+0.04
02/01/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
22/01/20267th4/179%14%-0.65
05/08/20264th9/276%50%-0.26
10/09/20261st5/287%100%+0.13