5
Onirico
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 5 · OR 87
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
36%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -9.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 09/04/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 8/15 | 97% | 40% | -0.57 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |