4
Orfano
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-03-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-01-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-12-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-10-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2023 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 27/11/2023 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 30/12/2023 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 23/10/2024 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 27/12/2024 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 30/01/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 18/03/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 28/10/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 17/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |