1
Rico Suave
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · Draw 1 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength93%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/03/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 17/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |